Recent Telecom Tariff Hike and its Impact 

India is one of the biggest consumers of data, spending approximately 5 hours daily on smartphones. Recently, a tariff hike was announced by the major telecom companies in India. 

Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea have increased their mobile plan prices by up to 25%. Airtel and Jio’s new rates are effective from July 3, while Vodafone Idea’s (VI) new pricing was implemented on July 4.

In today’s blog, we will discuss the reason behind tariff hikes and the impact of hikes on their stocks. 

Overview of the Telecommunications Industry

The Telecommunications industry is divided into sub-sectors like Infrastructure, Equipment, Mobile Virtual Network Operators, White Space Spectrum, 5G, Telephone service providers, and Broadband.  The 5G network has been rolled out in all 28 states and 8 UTs. 

India is close to becoming the second-largest smartphone market in the world, with around 850 million smartphone users by 2026. This will create a giant customer base using 5G technology and will contribute approximately USD 450 billion to the Indian economy. India ranks 60th as per the Network Readiness Index 2023, signifying the industry’s investment potential.

Sensing this opportunity, telecom companies have increased their tariffs to increase their average revenue per user (ARPU) and invest in the latest technologies. Other factors resulting in a positive outlook for the telecom industry include:

• Robust Demand: India is one of the biggest consumers of data worldwide. As per TRAI, the average wireless data usage per wireless data subscriber was 19.47 GB per month in March 2024 compared to 61.66 MB in March 2014. The total volume of wireless data usage increased by more than 10 folds from 4,206 petabytes in Q1, FY18, to 47,629 petabytes in Q2, FY24. In India, the teledensity of rural subscribers reached 59.19% in March 2024. Growing consumption and increasing teledensity together result in a robust demand for telecom services.
• Attractive Opportunities: 5G subscriptions in India will grow to 350 million by 2026, accounting for 27% of all mobile subscriptions. An increasing number of 5G users will be a huge customer base, which requires companies to invest in 5G technology.
• Government Support: The Union Cabinet approved a Rs. 12,195 crore production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme for telecom & networking products under the Department of Telecom. As of December 2022, 42 companies have committed an investment of Rs. 4,115 crore (US$ 502.95 million) comprising 28 MSMEs and 14 Non-MSMEs (eight domestic and seven global companies) approved under the PLI Scheme to develop 6G technology.
• Increased Investments: In the Union Budget 2023-24, the Department of Telecommunications was allocated Rs. 97,579.05 crore. FDI inflow in the telecom sector stood at US$ 39.32 billion between April 2000 and March 2024.

Reason Behind Tariff Hike

The telcos have reasoned the price hike to improve the Average Revenue per User (ARPU). The new rates reflect a substantial increase of up to 25 percent, affecting both prepaid and postpaid plans. According to Bharti Airtel, the mobile ARPU was considerably low and needs to be upwards of Rs 300. In terms of ARPU (average revenue per user), Airtel leads the industry with Rs 208, against Jio’s Rs 181.7 and Vodafone Idea’s Rs 145. 

The March 2024 quarter ARPUs (Average Revenue Per User) for the telecom operators varied between a low Rs.145 for Vodafone Idea and Rs. 208 at the higher end for Bharti Airtel, which is far from the required level and need efforts from telecom companies to improve return on investment.

Impact on Major Telecom Companies 

The tariff hike will improve the profits and cash flows that telecom companies will utilize to invest in high-margin fiber broadband and enterprise or data-center offerings and thus would increase their margins going forward.

The telecom company’s revenues are expected to rise by approximately 15%, resulting in increased profits. The telecom industry has suffered from price wars in the past, but with a positive industry outlook, the market expects a future price hike. Tariff hikes will have a positive impact on the stock prices of telecom companies due to increased revenues and profits. The positive impact has also been confirmed by the brokerage houses that have raised targets for telecom stocks.

Indus Towers, the country’s largest mobile tower installation company, has been reporting strong results. For the March 2024 quarter, the number of towers increased by 3.8% sequentially and 13.9% year-on-year to nearly 220,000. Indus added nearly 27,000 towers in FY24 compared with 24,000 between FY21 and FY23. Any improvement in the cash flow of telcos will support this trend.

So, the latest increase in tariffs by Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel, and Vodafone Idea can be considered a step in the right direction. However, whether these companies will be able to commence another price hike and their timing isn’t known yet. The latest increase was after a gap of almost 2.5 to 3 years. Any adverse effect of such tariff revisions on the subscriber’s data usage pattern will be crucial.  

Government Intervention

The government and the telecom regulator have no intention of intervening in the telecom sector’s decision to increase prices, as the tariffs in India are still among the cheapest in the world. However, the government wants the companies to focus on quality of services. There is healthy competition in the telecom sector that may not require the intervention of government authorities. 

Conclusion

Tariffs were hiked in the Indian telecom sector recently, resulting in a rise in revenues by nearly 15%. The tariff hike is likely to be absorbed by the market, and the impact will become visible in their Q3 2025, i.e., December quarter financials. The effect may take longer for Reliance Jio since it has a higher percentage of customers on longer-duration packs. 

The need to invest in the latest technology has forced telecom companies to raise tariffs to increase their ARPU. Revenue and profit increases will have a positive impact on telecom stocks. However, you should consult your financial advisor before investing.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)